Working Papers
Trade Shocks and Human Capital: Evidence from Brazil’s Trade Liberalization (Submitted)
with Marcos Nakaguma
Presentations: SBE 2019 and 2024, LACEA-LAMES 2021, NEUDC 2021, RIDGE 2024, EEA-ESEM 2024, and GeFam 2024
This paper studies the medium and long-run effects of Brazil’s 1990s trade liberalization reform on child labor, schooling, and human capital accumulation. Our analysis leverages extensive census and administrative data spanning nearly three decades to examine the effects of two distinct components of the shock that differentially affected the labor market opportunities for adults and children. We find that regions more exposed to child-specific tariff reductions experienced larger declines in child labor, accompanied by larger increases in schooling; opposite results are obtained for regions harder-hit by adult-specific tariff reductions. The effects of the shocks are persistent and always larger in the long-run. Specifically, we show that tariff reductions impacted the human capital accumulated by the cohorts more exposed to the trade liberalization during their formative years. Our results highlight the potential role of human capital in amplifying the impacts of economic shocks.
How Immigration Shapes Politics: Populism, Labor Movements, and Political Preferences in Brazil
with Marcos Nakaguma and Thales Pereira
Presentations: SBE 2022 and RIDGE 2024
Despite extensive research on the relationship between the urban working class and populism in postwar Latin America, empirical evidence remains limited. This paper examines the impact of immigration during the Age of Mass Migration (1890-1920) on political outcomes in Brazil. We ask whether immigration to São Paulo increased electoral competition, given its crucial role in the country’s development. Exploiting cross-municipality variation in immigration that arises from the interaction between overall immigrant inflows and the expansion of São Paulo’s railway network, we find that a higher share of immigrants led to increased support for labor-related candidates in the first competitive presidential elections during the 20th century (1955 and 1960). This finding challenges the conventional view that urban workers supported populist leaders regardless of whether or not they were aligned with conservative groups. These effects persisted even after Brazil returned to democracy in 1985. Our analysis suggests that immigration increased electoral competition in Brazil, exacerbating social and economic tensions that culminated in the 1964 military coup.
Fiscal Capacity and the Provision of Public Goods in Brazil, 1891-1930
Presentations: SBE 2023
This paper examines the impact of agricultural booms on tax collection and public goods provision in Brazilian municipalities during the First Republic (1891-1930). We build a unique yearly panel dataset on public finance outcomes and employ a panel estimation approach that leverages exogenous variation in land suitability to estimate the impacts of coffee price fluctuations on the development of fiscal institutions in São Paulo. Our results reveal a strong positive relationship between coffee price booms and local tax collection between 1898 and 1928. Revenue increases primarily originated from indirect taxes on goods, services, and wealth transfers, imposing a disproportionate burden on the poorest individuals. We also document that exposure to coffee booms was associated with higher investments in public goods and services. These findings contribute to our understanding of how agricultural booms, coupled with the fiscal federalism structure of the 1891 constitution, influenced the capacity of Brazilian municipalities to establish tax systems that generate revenue from diverse sources.
Work in Progress
Sugarcane Expansion and Development: Evidence from São Paulo
With Yuri Luz and Marcos Nakaguma
Draft (coming soon)
This paper examines the effects of sugarcane expansion on socioeconomic indicators in the Brazilian state of São Paulo, where the harvested area has doubled over a decade. By analyzing data from municipalities across São Paulo and leveraging variations in agricultural production patterns driven by soil and climate factors, we find that regions experiencing sugarcane expansion underwent a significant restructuring of the local agricultural sector, shifting from pasture lands to temporary crops. Additionally, we observe a structural transformation in economic activity, with a notable transition towards manufacturing, alongside a more rapid increase in per capita income.
Railroad Expansion and Mortality in Early Twentieth-Century Brazil