This paper studies the medium and long-run effects of Brazil’s 1990s trade liberalization reform on child labor, schooling, and human capital accumulation. Our analysis leverages extensive census and administrative data spanning nearly three decades to examine the effects of two distinct components of the shock that differentially affected the labor market opportunities for adults and children. We find that regions more exposed to child-specific tariff reductions experienced larger declines in child labor, accompanied by larger increases in schooling; opposite results are obtained for regions harder-hit by adult-specific tariff reductions. The effects of the shocks are persistent and always larger in the long-run. Specifically, we show that tariff reductions impacted the human capital accumulated by the cohorts more exposed to the trade liberalization during their formative years. Our results highlight the potential role of human capital in amplifying the impacts of economic shocks.
This paper examines the impact of historical immigration on medium- and long-term political outcomes in Brazil. Using a unique dataset containing vote shares from presidential elections at the municipal level from 1955 to 2022, we find that municipalities with a higher share of immigrants in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries exhibited increased support for left-wing parties in the first democratic elections in the 1950s. These political preferences persisted in the long run as the country transitioned from a military dictatorship to a democracy in 1985. Our analysis highlights the role of immigrants in urbanization as a mechanism for transmitting values and preferences to the native population.
This paper examines the impact of agricultural booms on tax collection and public goods provision in Brazilian municipalities during the First Republic (1891-1930). We build a unique yearly panel dataset on public finance outcomes and employ a panel estimation approach that leverages exogenous variation in land suitability to estimate the impacts of coffee price fluctuations on the development of fiscal institutions in São Paulo. Our results reveal a strong positive relationship between coffee price booms and local tax collection between 1898 and 1928. Revenue increases primarily originated from indirect taxes on goods, services, and wealth transfers, imposing a disproportionate burden on the poorest individuals. We also document that exposure to coffee booms was associated with higher investments in public goods and services. These findings contribute to our understanding of how agricultural booms, coupled with the fiscal federalism structure of the 1891 constitution, influenced the capacity of Brazilian municipalities to establish tax systems that generate revenue from diverse sources.
Work in Progress
Sugarcane Expansion and Development: Evidence from São Paulo With Yuri Luz and Marcos Nakaguma Abstract | Draft (coming soon)
This paper studies the impacts of sugarcane expansion on socioeconomic indicators in the Brazilian state of São Paulo, where the harvested area doubled in ten years. Using data from São Paulo municipalities and exploiting soil- and climate-induced variation in agricultural production patterns, we find that localities where sugarcane expanded experienced restructuring of the local agriculture sector from pasture lands to temporary crops. We also document a structural transformation in economic activity towards manufacturing and a faster increase in income per capita.
