Working Papers
Revise & Resubmit, Journal of International Economics
This paper examines the medium- and long-run effects of Brazil’s 1990s trade liberalization on child labor, schooling, and human capital accumulation. Drawing on Census and administrative data spanning nearly three decades, we exploit cross-regional variation in two components of the trade shock that differentially affected labor market opportunities for adults and children. We find that regions more exposed to child-specific tariff reductions experienced larger declines in child labor and greater increases in school attendance; those more exposed to adult-specific tariff reductions experienced the opposite. The impacts of the shocks are persistent and always larger in the long run. Specifically, we show that cohorts whose formative years coincided with the reform accumulated less human capital where adult-specific shocks were greater, and more where child-specific shocks were larger. Overall, our results highlight the role of human capital in amplifying the effects of economic shocks.
This paper examines how European immigration during the Age of Mass Migration (1886–1920) shaped long-run political preferences in Brazil. While existing research links the emergence of labor-based politics in Latin America to industrialization and urban working-class growth, we argue that earlier demographic changes induced by mass migration also played an important role. Using an instrumental-variable strategy that exploits the interaction between aggregate immigration inflows and the expansion of São Paulo’s railway network, we show that municipalities with larger histor- ical immigrant populations were more likely to support labor-oriented candidates during Brazil’s democratic interregnum (1945–1964). We also show suggestive evidence that the political effects of immigration persisted after Brazil’s return to democracy in 1985. The findings suggest that the consequences of mass migration extended beyond economic development and contributed to the long-run formation of local political preferences.
This paper examines the impact of agricultural booms on tax collection and public goods provision in Brazilian municipalities during the First Republic (1891-1930). We build a unique yearly panel dataset on public finance outcomes and employ a panel estimation approach that leverages exogenous variation in land suitability to estimate the impacts of coffee price fluctuations on the development of fiscal institu- tions in São Paulo. Our results reveal a strong positive relationship between coffee price booms and local tax collection between 1898 and 1928. Revenue increases primarily originated from indirect taxes on goods, services, and wealth transfers, imposing a disproportionate burden on the poorest individuals. We also document that exposure to coffee booms was associated with higher investments in public goods and services. These findings contribute to our understanding of how agricul- tural booms, coupled with the fiscal federalism structure of the 1891 constitution, influenced the capacity of Brazilian municipalities to establish tax systems that generate revenue from diverse sources.
Work in Progress
Sugarcane Expansion and Development: Evidence from São Paulo
Railroad Expansion and Mortality in Early Twentieth-Century Brazil
Broadcasting Populism: Radio and Mass Politics in Brazil
Political Power and State Capacity in Early Twentieth-Century Brazil